BREAKING: In Arizona, Presidential and U.S. Races Still Tight Two Weeks Out From Election Day


Phoenix, AZ (October 20, 2020) Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, live-caller survey of likely general election voters. The survey was conducted from October 16 – 18, 2020.

As we have tracked consistently all cycle, President Trump remains behind Vice President Biden. 41.9% of likely voters selected President Trump, 47.1% of voters selected Vice President Biden, 3.0% of voters selected Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and only 2.4% were firmly undecided. There has been an uptick – now 4.3% – in the number of voters saying they refuse to identify their preference.

The numbers indicate that the race has largely held consistent but does show a slight dip in the President’s numbers since the last survey our firm conducted at the beginning of October. In September we had the Presidential margin at Biden +2.7%, and now have Biden at +5.2% (up from +4.5% earlier in October). 

With regard to the U.S. Senate race, the lead for Democrat Mark Kelly continues to tighten. 41.9% of voters selected Senator McSally, 48.1% of voters selected Mark Kelly and 6.7% were undecided. Senator McSally’s numbers are tracking with President Trump’s but Mark Kelly is polling ahead of Vice President Biden by 1.0%.

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital had this to say, “President Trump and Senator McSally continue to trail VP Biden and Mark Kelly in their respective races. Both of these races are considered tight, especially with around 4% of voters who are identifying themselves as likely to vote but who are actively refusing to identify their choice. With two weeks left in the cycle, both of these races are still too close to call.”

This poll of 550 likely General Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 60% of the results from landlines and 40% from cell phones.  It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.18% with a 95% confidence interval.  Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on historical Arizona general election turnout.  The poll was conducted from October 16-18, 2020. All non-released questions prior to the question released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.



Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 


George Khalaf | | 480.560.5917
Joanna Duka | | 623.312.0020