Top AZ Congressional Races?


Phoenix, AZ (May 14, 2022) This fall is shaping up to be an exciting and contentious conclusion to the 2022 election cycle, and Data Orbital’s President, George Khalaf, dives into the state of the race for Arizona’s Congressional Districts. His analytical insight into Arizona, as well as his bullish predictions about where those races will end up going, provide many interesting insights into the newly drawn districts.  

Arizona’s Congressional Districts:

Congressional Districts 3 and 7 start the cycle as Safe D districts and we don’t expect to see any movement here. Incumbent Representatives Raúl Grijalva (CD7) and Ruben Gallego (CD3) will safely win re-election.

CD4 is the sole Democratic-leaning district that is in play this cycle – we begin it as a Leans D seat. This district has not been placed in the tossup column due to its structural Democratic advantage. At this time we are favoring Congressman Greg Stanton to hold onto this seat. However, in the expected Republican wave year, this seat could move to the tossup column in the coming months. That gives the Republican field of Tanya Wheeless, Dave Giles, Kelly Cooper, Rene Lopez, and Jerone Davison a chance to pick off a seat. 

On the Republican side, there are three safe seats CD5, CD8, and CD9. No Democrat has filed in District 8, leaving Congresswoman Debbie Lesko to coast through an uncontested primary and general election. However, Congressman Paul Gosar is facing a primary challenge after moving from Prescott to Bullhead City to represent the new CD9. While much of this district is new to the Congressman and he faces longtime Maricopa County elected official Sandra Dowling and Former Trent Franks staffer, Randy Kutz, Congressman Gosar is favored to win. Congressman Andy Biggs has garnered a Democrat opponent in Javier Ramos and also faces Independent Clint Smith. Without credible data pointing another direction, we expect Congressman Biggs to win handily.

In the likely Republican camp, CD 2 is a much more Republican district than its predecessor district, picking up the Prescott Metropolitan Area, while losing portions of its more liberal areas. In our opinion, this leaves a low chance for Democratic Congressman Tom O’Halleran to hold his seat against a strong field of Republican Candidates. Veteran and businessman Eli Crane, businessman Mark Deluzio, and State Representative Walt Blackman all have strong chances of taking the seat. 

Moving to the leans Republican Category, in CD1 the Republican primary is in play, with incumbent Congressman David Schweikert’s odds of winning reelection are – at best – 50/50. Challenger Elijah Norton has sizable cash on hand advantage and Congressman Schweikert continues to be dogged by his ethics violations. The district itself leans slightly Republican but in an expected wave year like 2022, victory for Democratic challengers Jevin Hodge or Adam Metzendorf will be a tough task.

Also in the leans R camp is CD6, the successor to the Tucson area swing district once Represented by Martha McSally and Gabby Giffords. Incumbent Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick announced a number of months ago she would not be seeking re-election. Democrats vying for the seat are State Representative Daniel Hernandez, State Senator Kirsten Engel, and newcomer Avery Anderson. Five Republicans are vying for the seat, including front runners Juan Ciscomani, Brandon Martin, and Kathleen Winn. Out of these candidates, Ciscomani has a strong financial edge and, thus far, there has been no publicly available polling in the race.

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To go alongside these exhilarating elections, Data Orbital will be rolling out an all-new Absentee Ballot/Early ballot (AB/EV) Dashboard this cycle. Showcasing an all-new design with the same premier data, this dashboard will offer a suite of new features. This year, there will be different pricing levels to meet every need and budget! Features will include the ability to filter based on party, congressional district, legislative district, county, and city (in Maricopa County). This upgraded tool is an asset to any candidate, organization, or media outlet looking to have streamlined data access during the 2022 midterm cycle and beyond. 

In addition to our updated ABEV Dashboard, Data Orbital is offering our general election statewide voter survey subscription. Included in this survey is coverage of top AZ races, generic congressional and legislative ballots, and full survey reports with toplines and crosstabs. Contact us to subscribe! 



Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 


George Khalaf | | 480.560.5917