Final AZ General Election Polls: Republicans in a strong position going into Election Day 2022


Phoenix, AZ (November 7th, 2022) Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, mixed-mode survey of likely General Election Voters. The survey was conducted from November 4th to 6th. The survey measured support for candidates in Arizona’s state-wide elections as well as the generic congressional ballot.

The day before Election Day, Republicans hold an advantage in nearly every statewide race in Arizona.

Democrat Mark Kelly is the lone Democrat with a lead. He holds a 48.2 to 46.5% advantage over Republican Blake Masters. Withdrawn Libertarian Candidate Marc Victor is polling at 1.8% while 2.5% remain undecided. This race has tightened considerably since our first General Election poll in August showing Kelly up by 10%.

In the Arizona Gubernatorial race, Republican nominee Kari Lake leads Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs 49.7% to 46.6% with 2.0% undecided.

In the race for Secretary of State, Republican Mark Finchem has a 48.3% to 46.6% lead over Democrat Adrian Fontes with 3.5% undecided.

Republican Abe Hamadeh leads Democrat Kris Mayes in the race for Arizona Attorney General by a 48.4% to 45.3% margin. 4.9% remain undecided.

Finally in the race for Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction, Republican Tom Horne leads Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hoffman 49.0% to 43.7% with 5.7% undecided.

When it comes to the generic congressional ballot, Republicans hold a strong 6.4% advantage over Democrats, 49.2% to 42.8% with 6.1% undecided.

Pollster George Khalaf had this to say about the latest results, “As we close in on Election Day 2022, the picture for who will lead all of Arizona’s statewide offices is getting clearer. Republicans have the advantage in all but one of the Statewide races we polled. These races have been trending positively for Republicans over the last month. The survey results also clearly show that very few voters are interested in split-ticketing – casting votes for both Republicans and Democrats – in the statewide races. Given that data and the way early ballot returns are trending, I believe Republicans are able to win all statewide races in Arizona in 2022.”


This poll of 550 likely general election voters was conducted through a combination of live phone survey and text-to-web that collected 33.1% of the results from live caller landlines, 35.7% from live caller cell phones, and 31.2% via text-to-web. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.26% with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on prior general election voter turnout figures. The poll was conducted from November 4 – November 6, 2022. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.



Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 


George Khalaf | | 480.560.5917