Data Orbital

AZ Congressional District 8 Republican Primary Poll: Blake Masters With Strong Support Early

Steven Sensmeier — Wed, 25 Oct 2023 22:02:06 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (October 25th, 2023) Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest mixed-mode survey of likely 2024 Republican Primary Election Voters in Arizona’s 8^th Congressional District. The survey was conducted from October 19^th to 21^st. The survey measured support for potential candidates in Arizona’s 8^th District Republican Primary, following the announcement from Congresswomen Debbie Lesko that she is not seeking reelection.

The results of the survey show that if 2022 Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters were to enter the race, he would do so with 33.2% support. This is a commanding 14.8% lead over his closest challenger, 2022 Republican Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh (18.4%). Rounding out the tested field were Arizona Speaker of the House Ben Toma (6.8%) and State Senator Anthony Kern (5.5%). 31.5% were undecided.

Masters also leads the field with 92.7% name ID and a higher Net Favorability (26.0%) than any other candidate polled. Hamadeh had 67.0% name ID and 22.9% Net favorability. Voters were also more likely to say that Masters was conservative (58.9%) than Hamadeh (41.6%) The data shows that, if Masters were to enter the race, he would have a strong, front-running position.

Pollster George Khalaf had this to say about the latest results, “These results clearly indicate that should he enter the race, Blake Masters would be in a clear front-runner position. His nearly ubiquitous name ID, especially compared to his opponents, coupled with the connections gained from running for statewide office, would make for a very steep and expensive hill to climb for anyone trying to overtake him.”

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This poll of 450 likely primary election voters was commissioned by Masters Exploratory and conducted through a combination of live phone survey and text-to-web that collected 32% of the results from live caller landlines, 32% from live caller cell phones, and 36% via text-to-web. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.71% with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on prior primary election voter turnout figures. The poll was conducted from October 19 – October 21, 2023. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.

ABOUT DATA ORBITAL:

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience. We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead.

FOR QUESTIONS, CONTACT:

George Khalaf | george@dataorbital.com

The post AZ Congressional District 8 Republican Primary Poll: Blake Masters With Strong Support Early first appeared on Data Orbital.

Final AZ General Election Polls: Republicans in a strong position going into Election Day 2022

rita — Mon, 07 Nov 2022 09:00:43 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (November 7th, 2022) Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, mixed-mode survey of likely General Election Voters. The survey was conducted from November 4th to 6th. The survey measured support for candidates in Arizona’s state-wide elections as well as the generic congressional ballot.

The day before Election Day, Republicans hold an advantage in nearly every statewide race in Arizona.

Democrat Mark Kelly is the lone Democrat with a lead. He holds a 48.2 to 46.5% advantage over Republican Blake Masters. Withdrawn Libertarian Candidate Marc Victor is polling at 1.8% while 2.5% remain undecided. This race has tightened considerably since our first General Election poll in August showing Kelly up by 10%.

In the Arizona Gubernatorial race, Republican nominee Kari Lake leads Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs 49.7% to 46.6% with 2.0% undecided.

In the race for Secretary of State, Republican Mark Finchem has a 48.3% to 46.6% lead over Democrat Adrian Fontes with 3.5% undecided.

Republican Abe Hamadeh leads Democrat Kris Mayes in the race for Arizona Attorney General by a 48.4% to 45.3% margin. 4.9% remain undecided.

Finally in the race for Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction, Republican Tom Horne leads Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hoffman 49.0% to 43.7% with 5.7% undecided.

When it comes to the generic congressional ballot, Republicans hold a strong 6.4% advantage over Democrats, 49.2% to 42.8% with 6.1% undecided.

Pollster George Khalaf had this to say about the latest results, “As we close in on Election Day 2022, the picture for who will lead all of Arizona’s statewide offices is getting clearer. Republicans have the advantage in all but one of the Statewide races we polled. These races have been trending positively for Republicans over the last month. The survey results also clearly show that very few voters are interested in split-ticketing – casting votes for both Republicans and Democrats – in the statewide races. Given that data and the way early ballot returns are trending, I believe Republicans are able to win all statewide races in Arizona in 2022.”

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This poll of 550 likely general election voters was conducted through a combination of live phone survey and text-to-web that collected 33.1% of the results from live caller landlines, 35.7% from live caller cell phones, and 31.2% via text-to-web. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.26% with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on prior general election voter turnout figures. The poll was conducted from November 4 – November 6, 2022. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.

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ABOUT DATA ORBITAL:

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience. We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead.

ALL MEDIA INQUIRIES:

George Khalaf | george@dataorbital.com | 480.560.5917

The post Final AZ General Election Polls: Republicans in a strong position going into Election Day 2022 first appeared on Data Orbital.

Week 2: Early Voting Wrap Up

rita — Sun, 30 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (October 31st, 2022) As we begin the third full week of early voting in Arizona, we wanted to give you an update on where things stand! As expected, overall turnout is down from the record highs of the 2020 Presidential Election. However, we are also seeing lower turnout compared to the 2018 election because of much lower returns from Republican voters. With 12 days left to go (the most recent date complete data is available at this time), Arizona voters have submitted 783,439 early ballots. At this point in 2018, 837,861 ballots had been cast. That’s a decrease of 6.5%.

This decrease in turnout does favor Republicans, for a number of reasons, though.

Republican voters used to dominate early voting in the State of Arizona but those voting patterns began to change after the 2020 General Election. As we saw in the 2022 primary election, Republicans are much more likely to either return their ballots in the last week or vote in person on election day.

With Republican turnout expected to surge as we get closer to election day, most would expect the Democrats to have a major advantage at this point in the election, much as they did in 2020. However, this is not the case. Statewide, Democrats hold a narrow 3.3% ballot return advantage. If voting patterns shift in the final week as expected, Democrats could go into Election Day with a ballot disadvantage and have to rely even more heavily on Independent voters to go their way for their candidates to win.

To put Election Day into perspective, there are 160,000 more Republican voters who did not request an early ballot than Democrat voters. Of that 160,000 voter advantage, nearly 110,000 have voted in at least two out of the last four General Elections. That means there are significantly more likely Republican voters that can vote on Election Day than there are likely Democrat voters.

One other major factor in deciding this race could be the surprisingly low turnout of low-efficacy voters. Turnout for 0/4 voters is down more than 70% from 2018 and 86% from 2020. Likewise, 1/4 voter turnout is down 47% from 2018 and 67% from 2020. If these patterns hold, this election will come down to which party can energize its base and get them out down the stretch.

Want more numbers and detailed analysis of Arizona’s early ballot returns? Check out our free dashboard here. Or purchase one of our premium options here.

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The post Week 2: Early Voting Wrap Up first appeared on Data Orbital.

New Survey: Arizona Voters are Split on Proposition 310

rita — Wed, 26 Oct 2022 16:00:13 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (October 27th, 2022) Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, mixed-mode survey of likely General Election Voters. The survey was conducted from October 20th to 22nd and was commissioned by the Arizona Free Enterprise Club.

With early voting well underway, Arizona voters are split on the issue of establishing a Fire District Safety Fund and implementing a one-tenth of one percent statewide sales tax as outlined in Proposition 310. 43.7% of voters are in support of Proposition 310 while 42.4% are opposed with 12.3% undecided.

Pollster George Khalaf had this to say about the latest results, “With a significant number of ballot propositions for voters to weigh this November, Prop 310 has not gotten as much attention as others. Two weeks into early voting and less than two weeks until election day, we are seeing the “Yes” side significantly under the 50% threshold. The 12% of voters who are undecided will need to strongly tilt in the “Yes” side’s favor in order for this measure to prevail.”

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This poll of 550 likely general election voters was conducted through live phone survey that collected 49.6% of the results from live caller landlines and 50.4% from live caller cell phones. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.26% with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on prior general election voter turnout figures. The poll was conducted from October 20 – October 22, 2022. All non-released questions would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.

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The post New Survey: Arizona Voters are Split on Proposition 310 first appeared on Data Orbital.

Republican Kari Lake now holds a 2.5% lead over Democrat Katie Hobbs

rita — Mon, 24 Oct 2022 17:00:00 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (October 25th, 2022) Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, mixed-mode survey of likely General Election Voters. The survey was conducted from October 17th to 19th.

The survey tested the race for Arizona Governor.

With two weeks until election day, Republican Kari Lake now holds a 46.7% to 44.2% lead over Democrat Katie Hobbs. 6.0% remain undecided.

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This poll of 550 likely primary election voters was conducted through a live phone survey that collected 51.1% of the results from live caller landlines and 48.9% from live caller cell phones. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.26% with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on prior general election voter turnout figures. The poll was conducted from October 17 – October 19, 2022. All non-released questions would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. oplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.

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The post Republican Kari Lake now holds a 2.5% lead over Democrat Katie Hobbs first appeared on Data Orbital.

Arizona Superintendent’s Race Showing Slight Edge for Tom Horne

rita — Mon, 24 Oct 2022 09:00:11 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (October 24th, 2022) Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, mixed-mode survey of likely General Election Voters. The survey was conducted from October 17th to 19th and was sponsored by Yes Every Kid.

The survey tested the race for Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction (SPI) as well as opinions of the state’s Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) Program.

With mail-in ballots already being returned, Republican Tom Horne holds a slim 45.4% to 43.3% lead over Democratic incumbent Kathy Hoffman in the race for SPI. 9.5% remain undecided.

A majority of voters (53.1%) said they have a positive opinion of the recently passed law that extends ESA eligibility to all school-aged children in the state of Arizona. The ESA allows parents to opt their child out of public schools and use the funding for other educational purposes such as at-home learning, tutoring, or private school tuition.

Support for the program extends to how voters perceive a candidate’s support or opposition to it. When asked if a candidate wanting to protect and expand ESAs would make them more or less likely to vote for that candidate, 50.3% were more likely to vote for them and only 24.8% were less likely. Conversely, when asked if a candidate wanting to limit or eliminate ESAs would make them more or less likely to vote for said candidate, 51.2% said they would be less likely to support the candidate and 24.9% said they would be more likely.

Pollster George Khalaf had this to say about the latest results, “As we begin the second full week of early voting in Arizona, it is clear Republican Tom Horne has an edge over Kathy Hoffman. We also can see that part of that reason is Superintendent Hoffman’s opposition to the ESA program. Voters clearly want to see candidates for public office advocating for ESA’s and not opposing them.”

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This poll of 550 likely general election voters was conducted through a live phone survey that collected 51.1% of the results from live caller landlines and 48.9% from live caller cell phones. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.26% with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on prior general election voter turnout statistics. The poll was conducted from October 17 – October 19, 2022. All non-released questions would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.

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The post Arizona Superintendent’s Race Showing Slight Edge for Tom Horne first appeared on Data Orbital.

The Data Orbital General Election AB/EV Dashboards are here!

rita — Mon, 03 Oct 2022 10:00:57 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (October 3rd, 2022) Data Orbital is proud to announce the release of its state-of-the-art General Election AB/EV dashboard. This dashboard includes enhanced filtering features with new metrics and accessibility. The dashboard breaks down early ballot information, looking across both federal and state districts at key metrics such as turnout, voter demographics, and historic voter turnout. Available in three distinct tiers, offering varying levels of metrics and filtering options, this dashboard suite is tailored to fit your data needs. Explore and pre-order the options today, at dataorbital.com!

Receive an all-encompassing overview of ballots requested and ballots returned, updated daily across Arizona.

With improved mapping filters, you can see breakdowns of ballot requests and returns in each county, as well as results down to the precinct level in select counties.

What does the demographic makeup of Arizona look like when it comes to this general election season? See the ballot return breakdown in real-time with the ability to draw comparisons across years and party.

Understanding independent voting patterns is critical to getting a pulse on key Arizona races. As more Arizona voters identify as independent, it is crucial to follow these voting trends as the general election season progresses!

An increasing number of new Arizona voters are turning out to vote. The New Voter Profile looks at several breakdowns of these individuals who have registered since the beginning of the 2022 election cycle.

See how Arizonans, across the voting frequency spectrum, historically compare to this cycle!

Go beyond the current year and truly engage in the early voting insights with past election historical data from Data Orbital.

As ballots begin to flow in, Data Orbital’s AB/EV Dashboard will be updated in real-time, delivering you the most up-to-date information!

General Election AB/EV Dashboard Options

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ABOUT DATA ORBITAL:

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience. We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead.

ALL MEDIA INQUIRES:

George Khalaf | george@dataorbital.com | 480.560.5917

The post The Data Orbital General Election AB/EV Dashboards are here! first appeared on Data Orbital.

Data Orbital is Proud to Announce the First subOrbital Insider Exclusive Webinar

rita — Fri, 23 Sep 2022 08:00:18 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (September 23rd, 2022) Data Orbital is proud to announce the first subOrbital insider exclusive webinar! This event will be taking place on Tuesday, October 4th at 12 PM. Subscribe to subOrbital to hear thoughts and insights of George Khalaf, in the first of many subOrbital webinars.

With an enhanced question and answer session, this webinar will give you the opportunity to ask the most pressing questions you might have about the state of the races in Arizona and across the nation. Since this webinar is for subOrbital Insider members only, there will be increased time for questions and personalized content that gives you the access you need to dissect the political data for this election cycle.

A subOrbital Insider membership is $15 a month. For a limited time only, when you pre-order our brand-new AB/EV Mid-Tier dashboard, you gain access to subOrbital for free for 6 months! To subscribe to subOrbital or to explore our bundle offer, click the button below!

subOrbital Insider Subscription

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ABOUT DATA ORBITAL:

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience. We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead.

ALL MEDIA INQUIRES:

George Khalaf | george@dataorbital.com | 480.560.5917

The post Data Orbital is Proud to Announce the First subOrbital Insider Exclusive Webinar first appeared on Data Orbital.

Data Orbital is Proud to Announce the Launch of our New Subscription Service, subOrbital

rita — Wed, 14 Sep 2022 08:00:40 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (September 14th, 2022) Data Orbital’s subscription service is here, just in time for the General Election! As we kick off the launch of subOrbital, we are offering one of our best bundle deals to date. For a limited time only, individuals who pre-order our 2022 Mid-Tier AB/EV General Election dashboard will also be given a FREE 6-month subscription to subOrbital.

Being a subOrbital Insider gives you increased access to Arizona and National election content. Hear thoughts and analysis from George Khalaf, breaking news from a data perspective, exclusive webinars for subOrbital Insiders only, and much more!

Our AB/EV dashboard and subOrbital Insider memberships go hand in hand to help you navigate through the data during this intense election cycle.

Click the link below to pre-order the AB/EV dashboard and to claim your free 6-month subOrbital Insider membership! This bundle is only available until September 30th!

Pre-Order Bundle Here

subOrbital Insider Subscription

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ABOUT DATA ORBITAL:

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience. We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead.

ALL MEDIA INQUIRES:

George Khalaf | george@dataorbital.com | 480.560.5917

The post Data Orbital is Proud to Announce the Launch of our New Subscription Service, subOrbital first appeared on Data Orbital.

Early Ballot Recap With 8 Days to Go

rita — Mon, 25 Jul 2022 14:00:00 +0000

Phoenix, AZ (July 25th, 2022) With one full week of early voting remaining in Arizona’s primary early voting period, more than half a million ballots have been returned in the Republican and Democratic Primaries as of
Friday, July 22 nd.

On the Republican side, 244,552 ballots have been returned out of the 1,163,033 requested for a 21% return rate. This puts the GOP well behind its 27.7% return rate from 2018 and 30.6% rate in 2020.

For the Democratic Party, there have been 1,139,009 requests and 277,731 returns, giving them a return rate of 23.5%. The total number of Democratic ballots is well above the number submitted in 2018 but due to a large increase in the number of requests this year, return rate is slightly down from 2018’s 25.5% and 2020’s 31.1%.

Pima County leads the state in return rate for both parties, with Maricopa, Pinal, Cochise, and La Paz also having strong showings so far. This could change as some traditionally high turnout counties like Yavapai and Mohave process more returns as the week goes on.

Interested in a more in-depth breakdown of the data? Click here to access our free dashboard! Looking for legislative, congressional, municipal, or even precinct breakdowns? Check out our Middle and Premium Tier Dashboards here.

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ABOUT DATA ORBITAL:

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience. We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead.

ALL MEDIA INQUIRES:

George Khalaf | george@dataorbital.com | 480.560.5917

The post Early Ballot Recap With 8 Days to Go first appeared on Data Orbital.