Arizona Superintendent’s Race Showing Slight Edge for Tom Horne


Phoenix, AZ (October 24th, 2022) Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, mixed-mode survey of likely General Election Voters. The survey was conducted from October 17th to 19th and was sponsored by Yes Every Kid.

The survey tested the race for Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction (SPI) as well as opinions of the state’s Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) Program. 

With mail-in ballots already being returned, Republican Tom Horne holds a slim 45.4% to 43.3% lead over Democratic incumbent Kathy Hoffman in the race for SPI. 9.5% remain undecided. 

A majority of voters (53.1%) said they have a positive opinion of the recently passed law that extends ESA eligibility to all school-aged children in the state of Arizona. The ESA allows parents to opt their child out of public schools and use the funding for other educational purposes such as at-home learning, tutoring, or private school tuition.

Support for the program extends to how voters perceive a candidate’s support or opposition to it. When asked if a candidate wanting to protect and expand ESAs would make them more or less likely to vote for that candidate, 50.3% were more likely to vote for them and only 24.8% were less likely. Conversely, when asked if a candidate wanting to limit or eliminate ESAs would make them more or less likely to vote for said candidate, 51.2% said they would be less likely to support the candidate and 24.9% said they would be more likely.

Pollster George Khalaf had this to say about the latest results, “As we begin the second full week of early voting in Arizona, it is clear Republican Tom Horne has an edge over Kathy Hoffman. We also can see that part of that reason is Superintendent Hoffman’s opposition to the ESA program. Voters clearly want to see candidates for public office advocating for ESA’s and not opposing them.”


This poll of 550 likely general election voters was conducted through a live phone survey that collected 51.1% of the results from live caller landlines and 48.9% from live caller cell phones. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.26% with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on prior general election voter turnout statistics. The poll was conducted from October 17 – October 19, 2022. All non-released questions would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.



Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 


George Khalaf | | 480.560.5917