BREAKING: In AZ, U.S. Senate Race Tightens and President Trump Down 4.5%


Phoenix, AZ (October 07, 2020) Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, live-caller survey of likely general election voters. The survey was conducted from October 3 – 5, 2020. This is the first Arizona survey released that was fully conducted after the first Presidential debate and the President’s COVID diagnosis.

As we have tracked consistently all cycle, President Trump remains behind Vice President Biden. 43.2% of likely voters selected President Trump, 47.7% of voters selected Vice President Biden, 2.7% of voters selected Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and only 3.8% were firmly undecided.

The numbers indicate that the race has largely held consistent but does show a slight dip in the President’s numbers since the last survey our firm conducted in the second week of September. In September we had the Presidential margin at Biden +2.7% and now have Biden, just outside the margin of error, at +4.5%.  

With regards to the U.S. Senate race, the lead for Democrat Mark Kelly continues to tighten. 43.7% of voters selected Senator McSally, 49.2% of voters selected Mark Kelly and 4.3% were undecided. Senator McSally’s numbers are tracking with President Trump’s but Mark Kelly is polling ahead of Vice President Biden by 1.5%.

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital had this to say, “We have been tracking both of these races for last year and they both remain tight. We continue to rate both of these races as Toss-Ups but do give an edge to Democrat Mark Kelly in the US Senate race. With regards to the President’s numbers, while we have seen large drops in his polling nationwide and in other states since the debate, we are not seeing that in Arizona. While President Trump continues to be down in Arizona, our surveys have not indicated any considerable movement in the numbers for the last 3 to 4 months. There is still lots of time left before Election Day and Arizona is still up for grabs.”

This poll of 550 likely General Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 60% of the results from landlines and 40% from cell phones.  It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.18% with a 95% confidence interval.  Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on historical Arizona general election turnout.  The poll was conducted from October 3-5, 2020. All non-released questions prior to the question released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.



Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 


George Khalaf | | 480.560.5917
Joanna Duka | | 623.312.0020