AZ General Election Poll: Democrats Hold Slight Edge


Phoenix, AZ (May 7th, 2024)  Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, live caller survey of likely General Election Voters. The survey was conducted from April 27th to 29th. The survey measured support for candidates in Arizona’s Presidential and US Senate Contests.

With six months to go until Election Day 2024, Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans in the State.

For President, the Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden leads Republican former president Donald Trump by a slim 38.8% to 38.1% margin. Independent Robert F Kennedy Jr. has 13.5% support. 8.1% reported as being undecided.

In the US Senate race, presumptive Republican nominee Kari Lake trails Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, the presumptive Democratic nominee, 48.1% to 43.9%. 6.3% of voters are undecided. 

Pollster George Khalaf had this to say about the latest results, “With Election Day 2024 a little under 6 months away, the races for President and US Senate in Arizona are a toss-up. As we get closer to Election Day, it will be interesting to note what happens to the support currently given to Robert F Kennedy Jr and if President Biden or Former President Donald Trump pick up more of his current supporters. One thing remains clear, all eyes will be on Arizona and the outsized role our state will play in shaping the direction of the Nation.”


This poll of 550 likely general election voters was conducted by live phone survey that collected 46.0% of the results from live caller landlines and 54.0% from live caller cell phones. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.26% with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on prior general election voter turnout figures. The poll was conducted from April 27th – April 29th, 2024. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found hereCrosstabs for this survey can be found here.

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience. We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead.


George Khalaf |