Phoenix, AZ (October 23, 2020) With voter turnout on pace to break records and voting behavior changing from previous years, we analyzed what could be expected for Election Day in Maricopa County. We utilized data as of Wednesday (October 21st) at 5 pm and assembled two maps that detail the following: 1) A map of registered Election Day voters that have not requested an early ballot and that have voted in at least one out of the last four general elections 2) A map of registered voters who requested an early ballot but still have not voted.
We overlaid this data with the 213 voting locations in Maricopa County (as of 5 pm Wednesday, October 21st) that included in-person voting centers, drop boxes, and drive-through drop boxes.
Here is what we found:
1) Both the outstanding requested ballots and likely Election Day voters are primarily clustered in an outer-ring of precincts (the darker the blue, the more anticipated Election Day voters).
2) Likely Election Day Voters:
- 27% of likely voters, in precincts with 275 or less total voters, have 47% of the total voting locations. Resulting in an average of 639 voters per voting location.
- 31% of likely voters, in precincts with 501 or more total voters, have 20% of the total voting locations. Resulting in an average of 1,722 voters per voting location.
3) Outstanding Requested Ballots: (data as of ballots returned Wednesday, October 21st)
- 17% of voters with a ballot, in precincts with 1,350 or fewer total voters, have 31% of the total voting locations. Resulting in an average of 4,566 voters per voting location.
- 37% of voters with a ballot, in precincts with 2,501 or more total voters, have 23% of the total voting locations. Resulting in an average of 9,610 voters per voting location.
George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital had this to say, “It is immediately noticeable that large segments of our voting population don’t appear to have adequate access to voting centers in Maricopa County. While voters continue to return ballots, we anticipate hundreds of thousands of votes being cast on Election Day. If corrective action isn’t taken, we could witness hours of long lines at some of the most populated locations and very little foot traffic at others.”
Map One – Maricopa County Election Day Voters
Map Two – Maricopa County Outstanding Requested Ballots
To access the total data, click here.
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Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience. We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead.
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